MAC and the BCS

Okay, it's almost February. You know what that means? The doldrums of the college football blogosphere. There has been about zero stuff worth posting with regards to football.

But, how about we gaze into our crystal ball and analyze any chance that a MAC team has at crashing the BCS party? Feel free to tell me how wrong I am in the comments.

Candidate #1: Miami.

The MAC Fan in Me Says: Why does Miami make for a solid candidate? Let's take a look at this season. Even though they were 1-4 versus BCS competition, there was a reason for that: injuries. The RedHawks really couldn't find a point in the season where all of their offensive stars were healthy. Daniel Raudabaugh will take over and he was solid filling in for Kokal last year. The defense should be ready to roll with nine of their key parts back including the entire LB corps (Joey Hudson and Clayton Mullins the most notable).

The Objective Pessimist in Me Says: Okay, those are great points, but this team was only 1-4 against BCS conference teams. And we're not talking Ohio State, Penn State, or Texas here. This team was the only team that could claim they lost to Minnesota (in overtime), they got shelled by Colorado 42-0, they lost a tight game to Vanderbilt, and they were owned by Cincinnati. Also, Syracuse was shaky at best in 2007.

Some Arbitrary Percentage of BCS-likeliness: 1%. This team could evolve into the best team in the MAC East, but they certainly won't compete for the BCS. There are too many holes across the board to be one of the best non-BCSers out there.


Candidate #2: Western Michigan.

The MAC Fan in Me Says: This year was a fluke and the Broncos should find themselves as one of the better teams in the conference for the 2008 season. Cubit really has this team going and he gained a lot of momentum for beating Iowa. The team at the end of the year looked like we expected coming into 2007 and that trend should carry over into next season. Just about everybody on defense is coming back and most are upperclassmen.

The Objective Pessimist in Me Says: It's Western Michigan. No offense to Bronco fans, but it'll be really tough to make a case for being BCS-worthy. The offense isn't even close right now as it was nearly anemic at times. The Broncos had one of the best run defenses in the nation and it was totally gashed in '07. Even though they get a ton of guys back defensively, it still won't be an adequate run defense.

Some Arbitrary Percentage of BCS-likeliness: 1%. Like Miami OH, they don't have nearly enough offensive explosiveness and the defense, while more consistent, still won't be good enough to get it done. We're talking about a team that doesn't quite have what it takes, but should be competitive in MAC play. They still have two holes on their schedule, but I'm getting a funny feeling about that Nebraska game to start the year. Even so, the Broncos will most likely win 7 or 8 games this year.


Candidate #3: Central Michigan.

The MAC Fan in Me Says: Well, you have to give them credit: They have been the best team in the MAC over the last two years despite some poor non-conference showings under Butch Jones. The defense returns enough guys to see significant improvement and more fundamentally sound plays on that side of the ball. The offense should continue to be one of the most explosive in the MAC with LeFevour and company coming back. One thing that went under the radar for the most part was the fact that the offense was more potent under Butch Jones in 2007 than it was under Kelly in 2006.

The Objective Pessimist in Me Says: Yeah, the razzle-dazzle offense is always a joy to see, but there are still some major defensive issues. I get the sense that Butch Jones has no idea how to coach that side of the ball. Add onto this the fact that they have to go on the road to face Georgia, Purdue, and Indiana, and a BCS bid looks very unlikely.

Some Arbitrary Percentage of BCS-likeliness: 5%. If they didn't play Georgia between the hedges, I might give CMU a better shot. That 5% is if they compete with Georgia (not losing by more than 20) and winning the rest of their games. Other than that, this team won't sniff the light of day regarding the BCS. The Chips just don't have a good enough defense to compete with the upper-echelon in college football. Expect them to beat Indiana, but lose to Purdue and Georgia pretty easily. Also, I'm not sure whether or not this will be the best team in the MAC next year.

Candidate #4: Bowling Green.

The MAC Fan in Me Says: Nine starters back on a young defense, a young stud in Tyler Sheehan, and the return of most of the team's dynamic offensive weapons. What's not to like? Of course the MAC schedules always come out late, but the MAC East doesn't really look like it will be as good as the West coming into 2008. This gives the Falcons a great shot at pulling out a MAC East championship. Look for that offense to shine this year.

The Objective Pessimist in me Says: 63-7. 63-7. 63-7. Bowling Green is already getting used to hearing this day in and day out. It was one of the most embarrassing performances in MAC history. Usually the GMAC Bowl showcases two of the best teams from the MAC and C-USA, but Tulsa just took them to the woodshed. The defense needs some major fine-tuning and, like CMU, I'm not sure Brandon has the defensive prowess to see that it happens.

Some Arbitrary Percentage of BCS-likeliness: 5%. I set the bar this low because of BG's schedule. They get to face a somewhat challenging non-conference slate with zero patsies. They get Minnesota at home and Pitt, Boise State, and Wyoming on the road. It's going to be tough, but I give the Falcons a slim, slim chance.


Candidate #5: Ball State.

The MAC Fan in Me Says: Okay, here we go; a BCS-worthy MAC team! Maybe. Ball State is returning boatloads of talent. Actually, make that everybody offensively. Dante Love, Darius Hill, Frank Edmonds, Nate Davis, you name it. They were young and explosive in 2007 and should be even better in 2008. The defense gets 8 guys back but that side will need to see major improvement before Ball State starts thinking about the BCS. Also, Indiana is the only team from a BCS conference on the slate, a game the Cards should win.

The Objective Pessimist in Me Says: This team was still horrible defensively and even though they competed against Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, and to some extent Rutgers, that's not good enough to get into the BCS. The only shot BSU would have is winning all of their games because there is no room for error on a schedule that isn't incredibly difficult. While the offense will explode, it probably won't be enough to make the BCS.

Some Arbitrary Percentage of BCS-likeliness: 10%. It sounds a little high, but the Cardinals should definitely be the class of the MAC plus an easy schedule. Even so, the offensive and defensive improvement should probably amount to 10 (or 11 including the title game) wins. I think this is a team that will be able to beat a BCS conference team (something the MAC has forgotten to do on a consistent basis since 2003).